The much talked about Maharashtra and Haryana State Assembly elections results are out. Exit poll predictions went wrong. Except India Today - Axis My India poll prediction, all other channels predicted a clean sweep to BJP in both the States. The result proved that prediction in India requires more study. Appreciate Pradeep Gupta whose agency, Axis My India once again proved that its predictions are credible. For a moment, leave Exit poll predictions from our minds. Let us analyse the election results . BJP Plus which is in power in both these states is retained power and set to form Government in both the states. However, its strength is reduced in both the states. In Maharashtra, BJP-Siva Sena is able to get full majority whereas in Haryana, BJP emerged as single largest party only despite 3% increase in vote share when compared to 2014 elections.
Important aspects to be noted in both these states
1. BJP came back to power fighting against identity politics.
2. BJP came back to power without offering loan waiver scheme
3. BJP came back to power with the face of existing Chief Ministers
4. Congress pushed to 4th place in Maharashtra elections
5. NCP emerged as strong force despite serious corruption allegations
6. Sharad Pawar is tallest leader in Maharashtra even today
7. Hierarchy issue settled in Jat Party by emergence of Dushyanth Choutala as their leader
8. Experiment with old guard in Haryana succeeded in Congress
9. Identity politics is still place in Indian politics
Reasons for reduced strength to BJP Maharashtra
- Coalition troubles are continuous headache to BJP. Siva Sena played spoil sport in the coalition
- Rural distress is notable and its impact is significant in the results
- NCP resisted BJP in its strong hold.
- Sharad Pawar is still holds the mass base
- Case against Sharad Pawar boomeranged. Lot of sympathy generated in favour of him
- Alliance with Siva Sena might not enthused the cadre in BJP due to continuous attack by it and lack of chemistry
- A non-Jat, that too a Punjabi is the face of party in highly polarised society
- Jats are more caste conscious and focused community
- Haryana predominantly rural state is having lot of agricultural issues
- Dalits are second largest community and they are not happy with BJP
These are some of the factors which made the results different from predictions. Moreover, one more important aspect drawn from this result is that campaign on national security and other national issues do not cut much ice in State elections. People are matured enough to understand the difference between State and Centre elections. Local factors are important in State elections. It is the lesson , one must draw from the results. Lastly, we must salute to the people for giving a stern message to leaders however big may be that they are the real masters, watching keenly and let them not be taken granted.