Chances of World War are remote. No country with military power like Russia or China may enter directly into conflict with US. Europe by and large may maintain neutrality. The countries which may side Iran are Iraq, Syria, and Shia militia promoted by Iran in Lebanon, Yemen and other few pockets. These countries do not possess any military firepower matching US. If it escalates to war, biggest loser is Iran only. This assessment is not based on merits of the conflict morally but basing on military strengths. The conflict though appears to be from killing of Chief Commander of Quds Force but it is since very long time. The day power was seized by Ayatullah khomeini in Iran , the relations were bitter between these two countries. It is only a trigger incident. US irrespective of party it governs was dead against to Islamic Republic of Iran. Even, several Gulf countries are against Iran after Islamic Revolution in Iran. Iran encouraged militia forces in several parts which is the major irritation to Sunni dominated countries in the Gulf.
Iran is aware of its strengths and weaknesses. Already, its economy is in shambles. But there is no alternative to it. Iran also contributed its share in the present conflict by encouraging militias all over Gulf. Its extremist ideology has become irritation to many Islamic countries. All progressive and liberal elements were crushed in Iran after Islamic Revolution established. Freedom of expression is not allowed internally. These things may not matter to assess about the present conflict but these can not be ignored at the same time.
India's role in present conflict
Some opposition parties are giving statements irresponsibly. They want India to side with Iran. Why these parties are jumping into such hasty demands? India is a country of its own stature. Its clout has grown tremendously in the recent past. Countries like China and Russia which are considered to be anti-US maintains neutrality but political parties in India already jumps into hasty expressions. It is not wise to take sides at this juncture by India. We must try to de-escalate the tensions instead of taking sides. If war is escalated, the biggest loser is India. Oil prices will soar sky high. Even otherwise also, taking sides at this juncture is premature.
Consequences of War
As per our assessment, war may be confined to US and Iran, maximum it may spill over to Gulf not beyond that. Of course, none can predict exactly what will happen. If such a war takes place, present boundaries of countries may change and new countries may be born. West Asia was not in the present shape in the past. It was part of Ottoman empire before first World War. During the War, there was a secret agreement between British and French which is popularly known as Sykes-Picot Agreement. As per these understandings apart from Arabian Peninsula, West Asia will be divided between them if they won the War. Jarist Russia also gave consent to this agreement. Accordingly , after the War, there was Treaty of Sevres for division of West Asia. As far as Turkey's division is concerned , this agreement was replaced by another agreement in 1923 after Ataturk Kemal Pasha won the War over other country's forces. But West Asia was divided as per original secret understandings. Present shape of West Asia emerged over a period.
However, there is no strong rationale for the present borders. The Kurd people were divided in this process among five countries, namely Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Syria and Armenia. Though they were promised their own land, they were left to the fate only. Only in Iraq , they have some autonomy within the country. They stood firmly against ISIS and supported US in its fight with IS. Similarly, now Iraq is totally divided between majority Shias and minority Sunnies. Syria is also not united again as a single entity. If War occurs, there is every possibility of redrawing boundaries with emergence of new countries. All these countries are Islamic countries. However, they fight each other cut throat and unitedly suppress Kurds who are also Muslims by faith. This possibility of transformation are bright in case of war between Iran and US.
War should be avoided under any circumstances
Though de-escalating tensions is desirable and must be tried , unfortunately, UNO is not effective to mediate. Its power was weakened over a period of time and it has become lame duck organisation. Yet, it is the only platform available as on now. Otherwise Germany, France, Britain, Russia, China must make serious mediation . India also may be involved in this mediation.That is only hope. Let these countries step in and try to avoid the War. Hope wiser counsels will prevail between conflicting parties.