Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India: Actor-turned-politician Vijay has risen as a prominent player in Tamil Nadu’s shifting political scene, with multiple exit polls forecasting an impressive debut for his party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), in the 2026 Assembly elections.

As per Axis My India, TVK is projected to win between 98 and 120 seats in its maiden electoral contest. The poll further highlights strong public backing for Vijay as a potential Chief Minister, with 37% of respondents favoring him, followed by the current Chief Minister M. K. Stalin.

On the other hand, estimates from several other agencies point toward a more modest showing for TVK. People’s Pulse predicts the party may secure 18 to 24 seats, while P-Marq places its range between 16 and 26. Matrize anticipates 10–12 seats, and Chanakya Strategies estimates 18–26 seats.

Despite the differing projections for TVK, the majority of exit polls suggest that the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) alliance is likely to return to power for a second straight term, with seat predictions ranging from 120 to 145. In contrast, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) alliance is expected to secure between 60 and 85 seats across various surveys.

Certain pollsters, including Praja Poll and Matrize, have indicated a stronger advantage for the DMK-led alliance, whereas Kamakhya Analytics points to a tighter race. Interestingly, JVC suggests an edge for the AIADMK alliance, signaling a possible departure from the general trend.

Tamil Nadu has a well-established tradition of film stars entering politics. If Vijay succeeds in converting his popularity into electoral victory, he may follow the path set by iconic figures such as M. G. Ramachandran and J. Jayalalithaa, both of whom made a successful transition from cinema to governance.

MGR established the AIADMK and served as Chief Minister for three terms, while Jayalalithaa governed the state for more than 14 years over multiple tenures, gaining extensive public support.

However, the final verdict will only be clear after vote counting concludes on May 4, which will reveal whether Vijay’s entry into politics becomes a turning point in Tamil Nadu’s political history.