New Delhi: A recent survey conducted by Mattridge Survey suggests a potential shift in political power in two of the four states heading into upcoming assembly elections.

According to the survey, the political landscape in Tamil Nadu and Kerala could witness significant changes, while West Bengal is expected to see a closely contested battle. In Assam, the BJP-led NDA appears poised to retain power for a third consecutive term.

West Bengal: Neck-and-Neck Contest

In West Bengal, the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC), led by Mamata Banerjee, holds a marginal lead over the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

• TMC vote share: 43%
• BJP vote share: 41%
• Seat projection:
• TMC: 140–160
• BJP: 130–150

With the majority mark at 148 in the 294-member Assembly, the contest is expected to be highly competitive compared to the 2021 elections.

Tamil Nadu: NDA Gains Momentum

• In Tamil Nadu, the survey indicates a challenging scenario for the ruling DMK alliance led by M. K. Stalin.
• The AIADMK-led NDA alliance appears to be gaining ground:
• NDA vote share: 40%
• DMK alliance: 38%
• Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK): 16%

Seat projections:

• NDA: 107–120
• DMK alliance: 102–115
• TVK: 5–12
• The emergence of actor Vijay’s party is expected to influence the electoral dynamics significantly.

Kerala: UDF Slightly Ahead

• In Kerala, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is projected to edge past the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF).
• UDF vote share: 42%
• LDF vote share: 39%
• NDA: 15%

Seat projections (140 seats total):

• UDF: 67–73
• LDF: 62–68
• NDA: 5–8
• If realized, this would mark a return to power for the UDF after a decade.

Assam: BJP Eyes Hat-Trick

• In Assam, the BJP-led NDA under Himanta Biswa Sarma is expected to secure a third consecutive term.
• NDA vote share: 46%
• Seat projection: 92–102 (out of 126)
• Congress alliance: 22–32
• The results indicate a strong consolidation of support for the ruling alliance in the state.